Given the relative positions of Derby and Hull it is highly likely that these two teams will contest the 4th place vs 5th place playoff with Hull currently in pole position to gain the advantage of having the second leg played at the KC Stadium. Unlike in the previous article about the top three I think I'll go a bit more in depth for this one, so if I get anything wrong please feel free to correct me Hull fans.
Steve Bruce
Everybody knows Steve Bruce. The lovable Geordie who helped Alex Ferguson win his first Premier League title as a player and subsequently gave him 6 points every season as a manager. Currently in his fourth season at the club, there can be no doubt that he is an effective championship manager; a second straight promotion push for his second season in the championship makes sure of that. However, there have been murmurs of discontent among the fans since their disintegration against Arsenal in the 2013/2014 FA Cup final - doubts about his ability to spot flair players and more importantly, integrate them into the starting eleven remain.
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| Steve Bruce is not universally loved in Hull (PA) |
Either Bruce didn't watch Ince before bringing him in which is worrying in itself, or even worse he saw him and played him in that position anyway. After three starts and a handful of substitute appearances Ince was done at Hull, sent on loan to Nottingham Forest where he struggled in Stuart Pearce's free falling side before eventually winding up at Steve McClaren's free falling Derby. The poor guy couldn't catch a break last season but he still performed well enough on loan for Derby to buy him out of his contract at Hull in July, against Bruce's will.
Formation
This season Bruce has dropped his 3-5-2 formation and has been swapping between 4-4-2 and 4-4-1-1 as seen below. In the premier league Bruce relied on to aggressive wing backs to track up and down the side of the pitch - Robbie Brady and Ahmed Elmohamady. However, with the sale of Brady to Norwich City in the summer and the recruitment of the more orthodox Moses Odubajo a change of formation was required.
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| Hull's formation has swung between 4-4-2 and 4-4-1-1 this season. Players chosen by best rated player in position in that formation, not the most appearances. |
The above formations can both be very telling and misleading at the same time. For example, even though he doesn't appear in any of the above formations Tom Huddlestone has made more starting appearances than David Meyler this season, a discrepancy most likely due to Meyler's injury problems this season (or maybe Meyler's just been really inconsistent? Hull fans, let me know which one it is). Robert Snodgrass' inclusion should be surprising given his late return this season after injury, but it shows that since his return Elmohamady has been pushed out of the side and 4-4-1-1 has been the formation of choice for the Tigers. One other thing to be noted is that centre backs Harry Maguire and Alex Bruce have made 26 starts between them this season, perhaps indicating an unsettled partnership in central defence. Other than that though, as can be seen above there has been a fairly consistent starting eleven for Hull this season.
On the Pitch
A couple of weeks ago I mentioned Derby's 4-0 drubbing of Hull in one of my posts. While I didn't go very in depth as to why that happened I feel I should return to it; Hull will most likely be Derby's opponents in the playoffs so we should attempt to learn everything we can about how they play. With a 6-0 aggregate score (2-0 away, 4-0 home) over the two matches the teams have played this season, to the casual viewer it would appear that we already have their number.
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| Hull's starting eleven vs Derby (05/11/15) |
Now forget everything I have just said and look at that team sheet to the left. Does that look like a team with everybody playing in their natural positions:
Mohamed Diame - a central midfielder playing as a winger.
Shaun Maloney - a central attacking midfielder playing as a winger.
Sam Clucas - a left sided utility player in central midfield.
Odubajo - A right back playing at left back.
Huddlestone - A defensive midfielder pushed up into central midfield.
That's at least five players being played out of position - I'll direct you to the section above talking about Bruce playing players out of position. Hull went on to dominate possession in that match and carve out several good opportunities against Paul Clement's defensive, counter-attacking Derby side. Looking back on it, a draw would've been a fair result and a draw would've been the result if Carson hadn't pulled off some heroics. Still, I wouldn't place to much stock in gleaning potential future results from this fixture - Hull had several key players injured and Derby were being managed by a man who would later be sacked for playing the wrong brand of football. A better comparison might be the meeting between the two sides in April.
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| Hull's starting eleven vs Derby (02/04/16) |
The most important thing to note is how the attacking two - Diame and Sone Aluko were on a completely different page from the rest of team. I can only assume that they were doing exactly what Bruce told them to do, they harried the Derby backline, putting pressure on the ball as a pair. This is a good idea; as we all know, Jason Shackell is not the greatest on the ball and Keogh has a (somewhat unfair) reputation for choking when put under pressure.
The problem is that Huddlestone and Livermore either couldn't or wouldn't move up to help press, meaning all Shackell and Keogh had to do was play a 5 yard pass to the centre circle where George Thorne was waiting. At this point Huddlestone and Livermore would realise the danger and try to push out, but it was too late by then; Thorne in turn only had to play a 10 yard pass to one of Craig Bryson or Bradley Johnson who would be free to run at Davies and Dawson.
Now I'm about to do something I've done rarely this season - praise Jason Shackell. I have criticised him time and time again this season for dwelling on the ball too often and refusing to pass to anyone other than Keogh. Against Hull he surprised me. When Livermore and Huddlestone moved out to help the front two press Shackell would simply caress the ball into Chris Martin at chest height. Martin saw the space vacated by the two central midfielders and dropped in away from the Davies and Dawson who were unwilling to move out of position. With no midfielders crowding around him Martin was able to hold the ball up and bring the midfield into play.
This seems to be a case of Bruce getting the front two wrong. The very slow midfield pairing of Huddlestone and Livermore would have coped perfectly well against Derby if the entire team had been told to drop in and play on the break, but Aluko and Diame seemed to have other ideas. To be fair to Bruce there is a distinct lack of pace available to be able to do this - Snodgrass is pretty slow for a winger and Clucas isn't the fastest. Hull did improve when bringing top scorer Abel Hernandez and the tricky Shaun Maloney off the bench.
From what I can tell I suspect Bruce was hoping for Livermore and Huddlestone to outmuscle the Derby midfield, but Thorne and Johnson were more than a match for them, while the effervescent Bryson buzzed around them. A lesson learned for Bruce perhaps? I wonder if Bruce had been braver and started Hernandez if the game and result might have been different - he presents a different kind of challenge for defenders than the terrier-like work rate of Aluko.
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| Tom Huddlestone and Jake Livermore were comfortably outmanoeuvred at the iPro. |
Since the defeat to Derby Hull have tended to start with a 4-4-2 formation, with Hernandez partnering Adama Diomande more often than not. Bruce and Maguire have also started several games as have Akpom and Maloney. Either Bruce decided to start rotating his squad quite early, he's had injury problems or he still cannot decide on his best eleven more than 40 games into the season. Just an idle observation - I noticed that against Huddersfield Snodgrass was played as one of the strikers in a 3-5-2 formation. Where does that sound familiar, a winger being played as a striker?
It seems there is no point in trying to determine what Bruce will go with as his starting eleven vs Derby. It will most likely be similar to what we saw at the iPro, with Hernandez coming in to lead the line and perhaps Maloney replacing Diame. If Bruce is smart in the away game at the iPro he will get his team to sit back and try to hit Derby on the break; countless teams have done that this season and Derby rarely cope well with it. Still, Bruce needs to drop one of Livermore or Huddlestone for a more mobile central midfielder, one who can contribute offensively and defensively; they are both too similar at the moment.
Whatever team Bruce selects, I would expect Derby to press high up the pitch like they have tended to do since Darren Wassall took over. Dawson and Davies aren't the most comfortable with the ball at their feet and in both post-match interviews this season Bruce has remarked how his team have made a lot more mistakes than usual during the match. I wonder if this is due to Derby's ability to press high up the pitch which doesn't normally happen against Hull.
Despite everything that Derby have done right against Hull so far this season, Hull are still a remarkably tough nut to crack - they've only conceded 34 goals this season (the second lowest in the league). In fact if they hadn't conceded those six goals against us they would have the best record in the league. They also have the third best disciplinary record - it's worth mentioning that Derby have the fourth best.
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| Darren Wassall will need to find a way past Bruce's resolute Hull side |
The playoffs are a completely different ballgame to the regular season. Both teams will be up for it, but both will also know the consequences should they mess up. The matches will most likely be tight affairs either settled by one moment of magic or by a colossal f*** up. If Derby do play Hull I suspect we might just have too much for them - with our first choice midfield finally reaching fitness and a manager finally learning to put players in their natural positions there's no reason to fear them.
Hull will most likely feel the same way - they have players who are more than capable of destroying teams on their day, it's just a case of if their manager is good enough to get them to do so.
Re: the last line, no he isn't.
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