Left Back - Clement's Problem Position?

We are now 13 games into the season and things appear to be clicking for Derby. After losing to Leeds in late August, Paul Clement's side have gone 8 games unbeaten, winning 6. A grand total of 20 points from a possible 24 suggests that things a finally clicking on the pitch, with this being backed up with some superb performances - the ones against Wolves and Huddersfield being my personal favourites.

At the same time Clement has also found consistency in his team selection. The midfield and forwards have been largely unchanged since the transfer window snapped shut, as has Scott Carson's position as Clement's preferred shot-stopper, with changes only being made when injuries reared their ugly heads. The defence has also been largely unchanged with Cyrus Christie cementing his place as first choice Right Back alongside Richard Keogh and Jason Shackell.

The only position that it appears is still up for grabs is Left Back where Stephen Warnock and Craig Forsyth have shared the role thus far. Now anyone who knows me in the outside world knows I much prefer Forsyth as a LB to Warnock. Indeed I'm sure looking back over the short history of this blog you can probably find some not so subtle hints of this. It appears that Clement doesn't share my doubts, having started Warnock in 5 matches this season and starting Forsyth in the remaining 8. It made me curious; what does Clement see that I don't?

Stephen Warnock controls the ball (Andy Clarke)

Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics
How can you prove a certain player performs better than another? Clubs have been using stats for the better part of 2 decades now to help try and gain a cutting edge and an insight into potential improvements. So I pulled up the data for all the matches played by Warnock and Forsyth in the Championship this season, courtesy of WhoScored.

Going purely on physical attributes it would appear that Forsyth wins out over Warnock every time - he's taller, stronger, quicker and younger. Forsyth's 6' 2" frame gives him a significant height advantage over Warnock and pretty much every opposition winger he'll come up against. This shows in the stats where he wins on average 2 aerial challenges for each one lost, compared to Warnock who actually loses more aerial challenges than he wins. Warnock also seems to lack the stamina of Forsyth; in 2 matches he was substituted with cramp - perhaps a sign of his age catching up with him. Forsyth on the other hand hasn't missed a Derby match due to injury since he signed from Watford.

Paolo Maldini (Yelena Rybakova)

Defensively, it's tough to choose between them. On one hand, Warnock makes more tackles than Forsyth, with an average of 3 per match compared to 'Fozzy's' 2.8 per match, but he is also dribbled past more often. This would come as no surprise to people watching the team regularly; Forsyth is a difficult player to get past, often forcing players down the line where he then blocks the cross. Warnock on the other hand is far more prone to diving in, often in an attempt to win the ball after a poor first touch. Something about this strikes me as naive; it's the sort of thing inexperienced players do in their eagerness to make an impact, not at all what one would expect from a former England international. Xabi Alonso summed up my thinking best when he said this - "tackling is a last resort". Paolo Maldini, probably the best defender of his generation was a master at not needing to tackle the opposition.

 The obvious difference between the 2 though is going forward. In his 5 matches Warnock has barely moved over the half way line, but the one time he did he set up Bradley Johnson to open the scoring against MK Dons. Compare this to Forsyth who charges forward with glee, providing an overlap for the winger in front and firing crosses into the opposition penalty area. These varying styles explain the differences in pass success between our 2 resident LB's. Forsyth attempts more passes than Warnock, but a higher proportion of these are forward passes and more likely to be intercepted as a result.

One area 'Fozzy' definitely excels at compared to Warnock is at 'Key Passes'. To avoid confusion, a 'Key Pass' is defined as a pass or cross leading to a shot on goal, which is a much better indicator of how effective a player is in the opposition third than counting assists. Warnock averages just over 1 'Key Pass' every 2 games whereas Forsyth averages nearly 2 per match; a huge increase. All offensive stats favour Forsyth.

Craig Forsyth moves forward with the ball (Andy Clarke)

In fairness to Warnock, when he has played it has looked as if he has been told to stay back and shore up the defence allowing Christie on the other side to go forward. However his passing forward with the ball leaves much to be desired; he often hesitates passing forward and by the time he sees the pass the opposition have often cut off the opportunity. To put it bluntly, Warnock is the place where forward momentum dies; 9 times out of 10 a pass to him will end up with him passing the ball to Shackell or Carson. Good if you want to keep possession. Not so good, if you want to be progressive down the wing.

Forsyth's main problem isn't a lack of willingness to get forward. His main problem is the inaccuracy of his passing when playing the ball forward, although this tends to be because he's playing ambitious passes that have high payoffs if they succeed. A nightmare if possession is at a premium, but useful if you're in a team dominating play as Derby so often are. I think it's fair to say that 'Fozzy' suits our style of play so much more than Warnock.

It's interesting to note that Warnock hasn't played 2 consecutive matches this season. He has usually played after Forsyth has played 2 matches in a week - perhaps Clement has concerns about Forsyth's fitness. This is just conjecture though; if I truly knew the mind of Paul Clement I'd be a manager myself, not some random know-it-all on the Internet. We'll find out if Clement agrees with me that 'Fozzy' is the man for the job as the season goes on.