The Playoffs - The Top Three

The end is near. After 46 games (44 at the time of writing) the teams ranked 3rd to 6th position in the table will compete with one another for a place in the Premier League. As Derby fans well know, the playoffs can either be one of the most joyous or most horrible experiences in the life of a football fan. With Derby's place in the competition confirmed a couple of weeks ago the only real question has been who will be joining them?

The Top Three
This season like many others before it has seen three teams jump ahead of the chasing pack and fight for the two automatic promotion places. However, normally one team breaks free to claim the title in the last few weeks of the season. This hasn't happened this season and it increasingly looks like the race will go down to the last game of the regular season - with two games to go Burnley, Middlesbrough and Brighton are all on the same points total with a goal difference of three separating them all.

Burnley, Middlesbrough and Brighton have surged ahead of the rest of the championship

Brighton
Brighton have very much been the surprise package this season, shocking everyone with their carefree, attacking football (much like Derby under Steve McClaren) under the tutelage of Chris Hughton.

The midfield duo of Beram Kayal and Dale Stephens have been a force to be reckoned with this season with the 35 year old Bruno Saltor defying his age to be the best full back in the division. When they played us earlier in the season I was impressed by the speed at which they attacked us - there was no hesitation and they were comfortably one of the best teams I've seen this year. It's interesting to note that Stephen's name was linked with us before we splurged money on Bradley Johnson and Jacob Butterfield in August.

They are very hard to beat. A lot has been made of their record breaking start to the season where they went 21 matches unbeaten, but I would argue that they've been even more impressive since the start of the January transfer window. After losing 4 straight games after boxing day they have only lost once - a remarkable 4-1 defeat to Cardiff on the 20th of February. They are the form team in the championship over the last 6 games and the last 10 games.

Key to this has been the signing of Anthony Knockaert from Standard Liege in January. The mercurial French wide man has played in the championship before with Leicester; he was a menace then and he's a menace now, having scored 5 goals and set up 5 more for Brighton since his arrival. The top scorers in the league show no sign of slowing down having scored an impressive 12 goals in their last 3 matches. Israeli striker Tomer Hemed can take a lot of credit for this having been involved in 23 goals this season, only Ross McCormack (Fulham), Andre Gray (Burnley), Alan Judge (Brentford) and Chris Martin (Derby) have been involved in more.

Tomer Hemed has contributed to Brighton's status as the league's top goalscorers (Paul Hazlewood)

Burnley
While Brighton have been this years surprise package, Burnley are right where everyone expected them to be. Having held on to the highly rated Sean Dyche, they have played exactly the same way they played in their promotion season several years ago - 'functional' would be the best word to describe them. This style of play doesn't win them many plaudits among neutrals and opposition supporters. Having lost only 5 games all season, they are the epitome of the phrase tough to beat.

A classic 442 team, they have plenty of bite in midfield in Joey Barton and David Jones, but it's worth remembering that there are plenty of talented players in that team. Derby fans will know just how well Jones can play and how much of a threat he is from set pieces, while it's no coincidence that Barton has played for England (even if it was just once). George Boyd and Scott Arfield are a talented pair of wingers and the pace of Andre Gray works well with the strength of Sam Vokes. Many people thought they would struggle having sold Jason Shackell to Derby in the summer, but they replaced him well with Michael Keane stepping up well to fill the void left by their former captain.

Bearing in mind all that has been said above, it should come as no surprise that 38% of Burnley's goals come from set pieces, the joint second highest in the championship with Bolton, but still way behind Blackburn (52%). For comparison the three lowest teams? Sheffield Wednesday (16%), Derby County (18%) and Hull City (19%). On the other hand, they know when to push their luck with the referee, accruing no red cards all season whilst only being booked 48 times. This would seem to fly in the face of the idea that they're a dirty team, when the stats seem to suggest that good old Leeds are the ones living up to old titles with an impressive 94 yellows and 3 red cards so far this season.

The signing of Andre Gray was a real coup for them in the summer; his 22 goals and 7 assists this season have really pushed Burnley on, with his pace and willingness to run in behind allowing him to stretch defences. This gives the likes of Boyd and Arfield the chance to cut inside, into the space vacated by Gray and the covering defenders.

Andre Gray has fired Burnley up the league (PA Archive Images)

Middlesbrough
On to our final team. Having lost out in the playoff final last season, Aitor Karanka's team will be hoping to go one better this time and hopefully avoid the playoffs all together. If one statistic can sum up Middlesbrough's season it's this one - 28 goals conceded. Sure, that figure is likely to rise before the end of the season, but even so it's an impressive number. With 21 clean sheets, Boro's defence has been their main asset this season, with Daniel Ayala (another ex-Derby player) being central to their success. At left back George Friend has been superb both in defence and in supporting the attack while on the opposite side of the defence Emilio Nsue has done a similar job.

The midfield pairing of Adam Clayton and Grant Leadbitter have proved that last season was no fluke and that they are a formidable pairing in this division. From afar it would appear that Stewart Downing has had a disappointing season. Signed for a fee of around £5.5 million last July, Downing has only scored/set up 8 goals this season which is a poor return for someone of his ability. Help me out here Boro fans - has he really been that bad?

The defensive mindset of Karanka has it's advantages and has it's drawbacks. This style means that Boro are very tough to score against, especially if they manage to score first on the break - they have only dropped 4 points from winning positions all season (in away draws against Derby and Burnley). The pace of Albert Adomah and the clever positioning of David Nugent makes this a successful strategy, whilst Friend is always eager to provide an overlap on the left hand side of the pitch.

However, this style also means that they find it difficult to break teams down when the opposition choose to sit in and play compact. The matches where points have been dropped tend to have been against teams that are lower down in the table; 2 losses against Bristol City, a loss and a defeat against Blackburn, and draws against Preston, Leeds and Rotherham. Should they fail to make it up this season, those matches will be looked back on as missed opportunities.

This was a problem last season and they have made strides to address this area of concern - signing Downing (£5.5 million), Nugent (£4 million) and Christian Stuani (£3.6 million) in the summer, whilst the prolific Jordan Rhodes (£9 million) was brought in in January along with Gaston Ramirez (loan) and Kike Sola (loan). That is a lot of money spent for not much end product; Boro scored more goals last season.

Has Stewart Downing had a disappointing season? (skysports.com)

Playoffs
One of these teams will not get automatic promotion - it is a mathematical certainty that 3 teams cannot fit into 2 automatic promotion places. One of these teams will most likely finish third in the table.

On the face of it Burnley hold all the cards - top on goal difference, they face mid-table QPR at Turf Moor before heading to the Valley on the final day of the season to face relegated Charlton. QPR could be a tricky proposition; since Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink's appointment as manager no team have drawn more games than QPR and a draw would certainly dent Burnley's hopes. A loss would be catastrophic, for reasons that will be looked at in a moment.

Middlesbrough and Brighton are far tougher to predict. Boro face Birmingham at St Andrews next, a game that depending on which Birrmingham side show up could either be an even match up, or a walk in the park for Boro. Brighton meanwhile host Derby at the Falmer stadium in a game that should be an even contest; a draw was the result between the two teams earlier in the season and if Brighton try to attack the Rams there will be space on the break for the likes of Johnny Russell and Tom Ince.

This leads up to the final match; Boro host Brighton at the Riverside on the last day of the season. It couldn't have been written much better to be honest. Both Boro and Brighton can lose in their next match and still go up if they win this one by a large enough goal difference. What will come out on top - the championships best defence or the championships best attack? I'd put my money on Brighton, but only if you put a gun to my head. Even then, if Burnley lose against QPR and both these teams win their respective matches, a draw will be enough to see both teams up. Tight margins at the end of the season.

My picks for promotion: Burnley as champions, Brighton in second place with Middlesbrough pipped to the line by one point. Even so, whichever team ends up in the playoffs will be the team to beat, just as they have been all season.

I can hear Boro fans shouting and howling at me already. I'm prepared for the inevitable backlash that would happen should I be proved wrong, but hey it's football in the most unpredictable league in the world. You've got to be prepared to be wrong some of the time. What do you think Burnley fans, going up as champions? How about you Boro fans, looking forward to proving me wrong? Brighton fans, can you prove people wrong one more time?

Three Centre Backs, Two Matches and One Angry Fan

It's amazing the difference 72 hours can make. At 10pm on Saturday evening I was furious and to those who know my relationship with football, that should come as a shock. I don't tend to get angry when it comes to Derby County; why bother being angry about something that is beyond your control? At 10pm on Tuesday I was on a high, having just seen Derby thrash Hull 4-0 at the iPro.

I had thought about doing a post on Saturday but that would have been a straight up character assassination of several people at the club; I would rather not have my name associated with that type of work. Thankfully, the result on Tuesday has given me the opportunity to do a classic compare and contrast - why did everything go so wrong on Saturday and why did everything go so right on Tuesday?

It would be very easy to say platitudes about round pegs in round holes. There is no doubt that team selection plays a part, but they don't explain such a huge difference in the level of team performance. They do play some part though, so I'll mention them. There were two differences in the team that beat Hull from the one that tamely surrendered to Cardiff. Jamie Hanson was replaced by Cyrus Christie and Johnny Russell came in for Jacob Butterfield. This was not a like for like swap (as can be seen below); Johnson was moved into central midfield where he's far more comfortable whilst Ince took up a position on the left wing. Hanson, a player that I have high hopes for is not a natural right back, especially when compared to the far more experienced Christie.

Against Cardiff, Johnson's lack of first touch and pace made him an ineffective outlet. This combined with Ince's one footedness hindering his ability to create with the ball at his feet. Hanson, for all of his defensive solidity very rarely made it past the halfway line and his distribution was poor. Compare this to what we saw against Hull. Johnson playing the centre of the park was able to use his strength and overall physical prowess to good effect, supporting the attack through middle. Ince on the left of the front three was able to go both inside and outside of Moses Odubajo, as opposed to just cutting inside like he does when played on the right. The introduction of Russell also added some much needed urgency to the front line. Russell also cuts inside most of the time but unlike Ince, Russell's darting runs are done at a quicker pace and are less intricate in their construction giving the opposition less time to double up on him.

These positional changes do influence results, but not to an extent that it can explain a 5 goal swing. Players, both ours and the opposition play their part. 

Cardiff
Cardiff set up with a classic 442 with two energetic central midfielders in the shape of Joe Ralls and Stuart O'Keefe who were first to every loose ball and Anthony Pilkington dropping deep to pressure Thorne. This prevented Thorne and Derby from dominating the midfield, and indeed has become a common and effective tactic used by many teams this season. Craig Noone was also very diligent in tracking back to help cover Olsson's supporting runs on the left flank; the one time Olsson slipped through he set up Martin for our goal. Ince was guided inside to the waiting Ralls by Scott Malone time and time again, and with Hanson rarely overlapping was too easy to dispossess. I can't help but feel that with an ageing Peter Whittingham on that wing Christie would've had a field day.

Bruno Manga dominated Chris Martin and scored one goal (walesonline.co.uk)

Now I'm going to go on a bit of a rant. Cardiff's two centre backs were absolutely dominant in the are with Bruno Manga being the standout and this is absolutely fine; you come up against teams like that sometimes. In the first 5 minutes it became very apparent that Martin would win nothing against Manga. With this in mind, it should have been obvious that if balls up to Martin were going to pay off, he'd have to play against Sean Morrison, the other centre back. However, every single long ball, whether it be from Carson's goal kicks or Shackell's hoofs, went in the direction of Manga. At one point Martin had moved across to Morrison's side in an effort to free himself of Manga and Carson just kicked it straight to the Gabonese! I wondered if there might some truth to the idea that footballers don't have brains. This was confirmed in the second half when no man was put on the back post for Whittingham's corners despite the fact that Cardiff's first goal had gone in at the back post. Lo and behold, the Cardiff winner goes in at the back post. Two very preventable goals, softly conceded.

Hull
Hull on the other hand went for a 451 formation with Mohamed Diame playing behind Sone Aluko. I can only assume Steve Bruce's plan was for that high energy front two to try and nick the ball off the feet of Thorne or one of the centre backs. This can be the only reason he left his top goalscorer Abel Hernandez (a very talented finisher, but poor workhorse) on the bench. This would be fine if Hull had more than two players pressing the ball, but they didn't. In ex-ram Tom Huddlestone and ex-coke head Jake Livermore, Derby came up against one of the least mobile midfields in the Championship. Ideally, one of them needed to push up and help Diame and Aluko press, but such assistance wasn't forthcoming. Thorne was able to push up into the space that Diame had vacated whilst pressing and Livermore and Huddlestone couldn't move up quick enough to pressure him. As a result Thorne had the freedom of the iPro.

Still, Bruce's game plan would've been fine if Hull hadn't shot themselves in the foot - after all, the onus was still on Derby to score. Curtis Davies, one of the best centre backs in the league slipped allowing Bryson to nip in and Derby took advantage. After that it was one way traffic as Hull panicked and left spaces for Derby to exploit as they looked for an equaliser. In contrast to the laboured forward movement against Cardiff, the team against Hull was fluid and played with a swagger reminiscent of the 13/14 season. It seemed to these untrained eyes that everyone knew their role, knew they could do it well and as a result they did. 

Curtis Davis' mistake against Derby changed the complexion of the match (skysports.com)

Jason Shackell
What to do with the enigma that is Jason Shackell? After the match on Saturday I was convinced that he should be nowhere near my club. There are good things about Shackell; he's solid defensively, very good in air and is a leader (supposedly). Against Cardiff we aw the very worst of him. Going forwards seemed to mean in his mind passing the ball five yards sideways to Keogh or twenty yards backward to Carson. For Cardiff's first goal, he assigned Keogh to mark Manga,a decision I cannot fathom. Shackell must surely know that he's our best defensive header of the ball, so why pass on the opposition's biggest threat to a poorer defender?

What really made my blood boil though was his reaction to an incident late in the first half. Shackell challenged one of the Cardiff players (Pilkington I think), who went down easily. The ref blew for the foul and while Pilkington was on the ground, Shackell kicked him. Kicked him. Whilst he was 2 yards in front of the linesman. If that linesman knew how to do his job he would've told the ref to send Shackell off and if I was Wassall I would've dragged him off at halftime. For one of our most experienced players, a player who is supposed to be a cool head, a man who many were calling to be our captain to do that is unacceptable. Words cannot explain my rage upon seeing that.

To give him his due though, Shackell was much improved against Hull. Jake Buxton had obviously decided to have a word with him in training as his passing forward actually went into the opposition half of the pitch for once. And not only that, but most of it was accurate, to the chest of Martin and as a result actually giving him a chance to bring other players into the match.

Jason Shackell was much improved against Hull (Action Images)

Final Thoughts
The annoying thing about those 72 hours is that they show just how well we can play, yet there was no sign of that level of performance against Cardiff. I'm trying to be as respectful as possible when I say this, but Cardiff are no great shakes. A functional team that punished us from set pieces, like a less efficient Burnley. They were there for the taking and we didn't do that. The important thing to do going forward is to remember what gave us this great result against Hull and what gave us this terrible one against Cardiff.