The Top Three
This season like many others before it has seen three teams jump ahead of the chasing pack and fight for the two automatic promotion places. However, normally one team breaks free to claim the title in the last few weeks of the season. This hasn't happened this season and it increasingly looks like the race will go down to the last game of the regular season - with two games to go Burnley, Middlesbrough and Brighton are all on the same points total with a goal difference of three separating them all.
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| Burnley, Middlesbrough and Brighton have surged ahead of the rest of the championship |
Brighton have very much been the surprise package this season, shocking everyone with their carefree, attacking football (much like Derby under Steve McClaren) under the tutelage of Chris Hughton.
The midfield duo of Beram Kayal and Dale Stephens have been a force to be reckoned with this season with the 35 year old Bruno Saltor defying his age to be the best full back in the division. When they played us earlier in the season I was impressed by the speed at which they attacked us - there was no hesitation and they were comfortably one of the best teams I've seen this year. It's interesting to note that Stephen's name was linked with us before we splurged money on Bradley Johnson and Jacob Butterfield in August.
They are very hard to beat. A lot has been made of their record breaking start to the season where they went 21 matches unbeaten, but I would argue that they've been even more impressive since the start of the January transfer window. After losing 4 straight games after boxing day they have only lost once - a remarkable 4-1 defeat to Cardiff on the 20th of February. They are the form team in the championship over the last 6 games and the last 10 games.
Key to this has been the signing of Anthony Knockaert from Standard Liege in January. The mercurial French wide man has played in the championship before with Leicester; he was a menace then and he's a menace now, having scored 5 goals and set up 5 more for Brighton since his arrival. The top scorers in the league show no sign of slowing down having scored an impressive 12 goals in their last 3 matches. Israeli striker Tomer Hemed can take a lot of credit for this having been involved in 23 goals this season, only Ross McCormack (Fulham), Andre Gray (Burnley), Alan Judge (Brentford) and Chris Martin (Derby) have been involved in more.
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| Tomer Hemed has contributed to Brighton's status as the league's top goalscorers (Paul Hazlewood) |
While Brighton have been this years surprise package, Burnley are right where everyone expected them to be. Having held on to the highly rated Sean Dyche, they have played exactly the same way they played in their promotion season several years ago - 'functional' would be the best word to describe them. This style of play doesn't win them many plaudits among neutrals and opposition supporters. Having lost only 5 games all season, they are the epitome of the phrase tough to beat.
A classic 442 team, they have plenty of bite in midfield in Joey Barton and David Jones, but it's worth remembering that there are plenty of talented players in that team. Derby fans will know just how well Jones can play and how much of a threat he is from set pieces, while it's no coincidence that Barton has played for England (even if it was just once). George Boyd and Scott Arfield are a talented pair of wingers and the pace of Andre Gray works well with the strength of Sam Vokes. Many people thought they would struggle having sold Jason Shackell to Derby in the summer, but they replaced him well with Michael Keane stepping up well to fill the void left by their former captain.
Bearing in mind all that has been said above, it should come as no surprise that 38% of Burnley's goals come from set pieces, the joint second highest in the championship with Bolton, but still way behind Blackburn (52%). For comparison the three lowest teams? Sheffield Wednesday (16%), Derby County (18%) and Hull City (19%). On the other hand, they know when to push their luck with the referee, accruing no red cards all season whilst only being booked 48 times. This would seem to fly in the face of the idea that they're a dirty team, when the stats seem to suggest that good old Leeds are the ones living up to old titles with an impressive 94 yellows and 3 red cards so far this season.
The signing of Andre Gray was a real coup for them in the summer; his 22 goals and 7 assists this season have really pushed Burnley on, with his pace and willingness to run in behind allowing him to stretch defences. This gives the likes of Boyd and Arfield the chance to cut inside, into the space vacated by Gray and the covering defenders.
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| Andre Gray has fired Burnley up the league (PA Archive Images) |
On to our final team. Having lost out in the playoff final last season, Aitor Karanka's team will be hoping to go one better this time and hopefully avoid the playoffs all together. If one statistic can sum up Middlesbrough's season it's this one - 28 goals conceded. Sure, that figure is likely to rise before the end of the season, but even so it's an impressive number. With 21 clean sheets, Boro's defence has been their main asset this season, with Daniel Ayala (another ex-Derby player) being central to their success. At left back George Friend has been superb both in defence and in supporting the attack while on the opposite side of the defence Emilio Nsue has done a similar job.
The midfield pairing of Adam Clayton and Grant Leadbitter have proved that last season was no fluke and that they are a formidable pairing in this division. From afar it would appear that Stewart Downing has had a disappointing season. Signed for a fee of around £5.5 million last July, Downing has only scored/set up 8 goals this season which is a poor return for someone of his ability. Help me out here Boro fans - has he really been that bad?
The defensive mindset of Karanka has it's advantages and has it's drawbacks. This style means that Boro are very tough to score against, especially if they manage to score first on the break - they have only dropped 4 points from winning positions all season (in away draws against Derby and Burnley). The pace of Albert Adomah and the clever positioning of David Nugent makes this a successful strategy, whilst Friend is always eager to provide an overlap on the left hand side of the pitch.
However, this style also means that they find it difficult to break teams down when the opposition choose to sit in and play compact. The matches where points have been dropped tend to have been against teams that are lower down in the table; 2 losses against Bristol City, a loss and a defeat against Blackburn, and draws against Preston, Leeds and Rotherham. Should they fail to make it up this season, those matches will be looked back on as missed opportunities.
This was a problem last season and they have made strides to address this area of concern - signing Downing (£5.5 million), Nugent (£4 million) and Christian Stuani (£3.6 million) in the summer, whilst the prolific Jordan Rhodes (£9 million) was brought in in January along with Gaston Ramirez (loan) and Kike Sola (loan). That is a lot of money spent for not much end product; Boro scored more goals last season.
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| Has Stewart Downing had a disappointing season? (skysports.com) |
One of these teams will not get automatic promotion - it is a mathematical certainty that 3 teams cannot fit into 2 automatic promotion places. One of these teams will most likely finish third in the table.
On the face of it Burnley hold all the cards - top on goal difference, they face mid-table QPR at Turf Moor before heading to the Valley on the final day of the season to face relegated Charlton. QPR could be a tricky proposition; since Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink's appointment as manager no team have drawn more games than QPR and a draw would certainly dent Burnley's hopes. A loss would be catastrophic, for reasons that will be looked at in a moment.
Middlesbrough and Brighton are far tougher to predict. Boro face Birmingham at St Andrews next, a game that depending on which Birrmingham side show up could either be an even match up, or a walk in the park for Boro. Brighton meanwhile host Derby at the Falmer stadium in a game that should be an even contest; a draw was the result between the two teams earlier in the season and if Brighton try to attack the Rams there will be space on the break for the likes of Johnny Russell and Tom Ince.
This leads up to the final match; Boro host Brighton at the Riverside on the last day of the season. It couldn't have been written much better to be honest. Both Boro and Brighton can lose in their next match and still go up if they win this one by a large enough goal difference. What will come out on top - the championships best defence or the championships best attack? I'd put my money on Brighton, but only if you put a gun to my head. Even then, if Burnley lose against QPR and both these teams win their respective matches, a draw will be enough to see both teams up. Tight margins at the end of the season.
My picks for promotion: Burnley as champions, Brighton in second place with Middlesbrough pipped to the line by one point. Even so, whichever team ends up in the playoffs will be the team to beat, just as they have been all season.
I can hear Boro fans shouting and howling at me already. I'm prepared for the inevitable backlash that would happen should I be proved wrong, but hey it's football in the most unpredictable league in the world. You've got to be prepared to be wrong some of the time. What do you think Burnley fans, going up as champions? How about you Boro fans, looking forward to proving me wrong? Brighton fans, can you prove people wrong one more time?
Nicely analysed. Fancy Burnley and Boro myself.
ReplyDeleteCheers. The way I see it, Burnley are massive favourites - someone from Boro or Brighton is going to drop points on the final day. I'm pretty confident you'll win all your matches.
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