Friday 2 September 2016

Derby County's Transfer Business - Summer 2016

Summer has come and gone at Derby County and it's fair to say people have mixed feelings about it. With new boss Nigel Pearson clearly looking to stamp his mark on this squad, and with chairman Mel Morris right behind him changes have been wrung and not all of them have gone down well.

The club have said that we are in no danger of breaching FFP rules, but even so such great an outlay over the last couple of seasons with such little reward would have surely made Morris hesitate when parting with his cash. On this front I suspect Mel enacted a sell first buy later policy this window, limiting his losses. This isn't to say he's not continuing to pump his money into the club, just that he's being a bit more cautious in the transfer market.

On the playing side, Nigel Pearson has been struggling immensely to get his message across to the players with players looking lost on the pitch and unclear about what their roles are. Pearson appears to have decided that possession football is not the way forward and that the focus should be on quick forwards with quicker wingers. This is the most important thing to remember when looking  at ins and outs this window.

Rather than starting with outgoings and then moving on to incomings, I've decided that a position-based article is best. It's much easier to understand the business that has taken place this way.
Lee Grant left for Stoke on a 6 month loan deal. (Getty)
Goalkeepers
Outs - Lee Grant (Stoke, 6 month loan), Kelle Roos (Bristol Rovers, season long loan), Mats Morch (released).
Ins - Chris Weale (Free Agent)

As is always the case at Derby County, there has been plenty of movement in the goalkeeping department. Lee Grant makes the short journey to Stoke as cover for the injured Jack Butland (a former Derby loan player), and will be back in January all being well. It does seem like an odd move on the surface, but he doesn't look like displacing Carson as number one and this way he gets games whilst we get him off the wage bill.

Also leaving on loan is Kelle Roos, who has joined Bristol Rovers on a season long loan. Something tells me this is the last chance saloon for Roos who will have one year left on his contract when he returns at the end of the season. He either impresses here and forces his way into the team next year, or we try and get a fee for the 24 year old next summer.

Youngster Mats Morch was released at the start of the summer from the  youth set up and as far  as I'm aware hasn't found a club yet.

Chris Weale has been brought in by Pearson as 'goalkeeping cover' on a one year deal. Weale has previously played for Pearson, indeed he was in goal for Leicester during their first season back in the championship. Those of us with keen memories will remember him scoring an own goal several seasons ago when Pearson's Leicester were playing Nigel Clough's Derby. Feel free to find it on YouTube, it's hilarious. His recent career is more mixed; he was Yeovil's reserve goalkeeper and goalkeeping coach last season as they stayed up by the skin of their teeth in League Two. From a playing perspective it sort of make sense though; we need cover now Grant has gone, he won't be on high wages (at least I should hope not) and Pearson gets someone he can trust in the dressing room.
The arrival of Chris Weale is not what many fans were expecting or hoping for. (@dcfcofficial)
Defenders
Outs - Raul Albentosa (Deportivo de La Coruna, £675,000), Jake Buxton (Wigan Athletic, Free Transfer), Ryan Shotton (Birmingham City, £750,000), Stephen Warnock (Wigan Athletic, Free Transfer).
Ins - Max Lowe (Promoted from Youth)

You have to say that it was no great surprise that a number of defenders have left the club this summer, given how settled our defence has been over the last season or so. The remarkably reliable and injury free pairing of Shackell and Keogh means there is barely a look in for any other centre backs at the club. Some had to go.

Albentosa said farewell to England after the briefest of stays. A pre-agreement with Malaga fell through after the Spanish club decided they didn't fancy paying over the odds for him and for a time it seemed as if Raul was going start the new season in the Midlands. Finally though, just before the start of the season Deportivo de La Coruna made a move and so did Raul. It never really worked for him, with language difficulties not helping his integration into the team as well as a disturbing lack of ball control. Sometimes things just don't work out; there's no doubt in my mind that despite his sojourn in England he'll have a good career in La Liga.

Ryan Shotton joined former Ram Gary Rowett at Birmingham City after a loan there last season. This seems like its for the best, Shotton was a nervy defender on the pitch prone to lapses in concentration and had a worrying knack of letting the ball roll under his feet. Still, like the Albentosa deal, we somehow managed to make a profit from him, which is remarkable - perhaps his form was better at Birmingham than Derby?

Stephen Warnock's tempestuous relationship with Derby came too an end, moving to recently promoted Wigan Athletic on a free transfer. Getting sent off in your first match is not a good way to endear yourself to the fans and his hesitancy to cross the halfway line when on the pitch made him a black hole on the pitch, where attacking intent went to die. Still, when asked to defend he was half decent, with a happy knack of being in the right spot on the line time and time again to block shots. Wigan fans were impressed with his defensive solidity when on loan with them last season, so I think it was a good deal all round.
Popular defender Jake Buxton left for Wigan after 7 years at the club (skysports.com)
Joining Warnock in Lancashire was Jake Buxton. Writing about this now it has just dawned on me how much I miss him. Bucko. Buckenbauer. Our very own football genius. So much has happened at this club since he arrived in 2009; relegations fought off, new owners, several new managers and several promotion challenges. Part of me thinks it was right of him to leave as he obviously wasn't in Pearson's plans and he needed one more big contract before he retires, but even so. A true leader of men, a man who never forget where he came from and in his later years, not a half bad footballer. The clubs longest serving player who had the respect of everybody at the club and was a captain even when not on the pitch, my biggest regret is that he never got to reach the premier league with us; no one deserved it more.

There were no ins so to speak of, apart from Max Lowe finally getting promoted from the under 21's to the senior squad. I'm led to believe he was going to do that last season except he was injured all season, leading us buying Olsson to replace the ineffective Warnock at left back. Even so, here he is now, and I expect him to make some more appearances after his debut against Carlisle in the EFL Cup.

I must say though, that I would have liked a new right back to have been brought in to either replace or at least challenge Christie. Christie is quite the athlete, but it is becoming painfully obvious that he's a winger turned right back who in his own words has "never been taught how to defend". His product going forward could make up for this except he doesn't have any; when was the last time he assisted a goal or scored? Oh well, we can't have everything I suppose.

Midfielders
Outs - Jeff Hendrick (Burnley, £10.5m), Ivan Calero (Sparta Rotterdam, Free Transfer).
Ins - Timi Max Elsnik (Promoted from Youth), Ikechi Anya (Watford, £4m).
Derby cashed in on Jeff Hendrick's superb Euro's, accepting a £10.5 million bid from Burnley. (©INPHO/James Crombie)

Perhaps the most predictable move of the summer was Jeff Hendrick's extremely drawn out departure to Burnley for a club record fee on both sides of the deal. It was always on the cards, after Hendrick's impressive performances during Euro 2016 for the Republic of Ireland and Burnley were thee first in and last out for the academy graduate. I have to be honest £10.5 million is great money for a player who despite having a remarkable amount of talent, has rarely put it together consistently on the pitch and I'm sure a lot of Derby fans think the same.

It is sad all the same though to see him leave; it has been a pleasure to see him grow and mature as a footballer from his debut in 2011 (which pretty fittingly was against Burnley.) He has given us some special moments - several goals against Forest, a few beauties along the way and some really impressive performances, but you feel in the end that if we don't cash in now we'd never get even close to as good an offer for him. I've heard that the sell-on fee for him is quite something as well. I'll keep an eye out for him and hopefully we'll come up against him in the Premier League next season.

Also leaving Derby is Ivan Calero who was let go early in the summer on a free transfer to join Dutch side Sparta Rotterdam. One of Steve McClaren's many youth signings, despite being a skillful player he always seemed a bit too lightweight for the English leagues, something he confirmed when he was sent on loan to lower league sides.

Young Slovenian Timi Max Elsnik was promoted to the senior squad in the summer as well. The versatile midfielder, at the age of 18 has only been at the club for 2 years, but has impressed in the youth set up at every level and he was given his debut in the EFL Cup against Carlisle. He impressed there, showing a maturity beyond his years to score two penalties in the shootout at the end, whilst impressing me with his post match interview afterwards. He has a big future ahead of him.
New winger Ikechi Anya will add pace to the team after signing from Watford. (dcfc.co.uk)
Coming in on transfer deadline day was Watford winger Ikechi Anya for a hefty £4 million fee. The versatile winger, who can also play as a wing back has caught my eye in the past, mainly when sprinting past Cyrus Christie in matches. With his pace and dribbling ability, expect him to be pushed straight into the starting 11 when he returns from international duty with Scotland.

A fan favourite at Watford for his work rate, it's obvious why Pearson has brought him, but I do have a few concerns about his end product (0 goals in his last two seasons and only 16 assists in his four seasons at Watford give me doubts), and the fact that he is nearing the dreaded age of 30 when most players reliant on speed begin to struggle. Still, with his pace he should be a welcome addition to the squad.

Forwards
Outs - Shaquille McDonald (Nuneaton Town, Free Transfer), Conor Sammon (Hearts of Midlothian, Free Transfer), Kwame Thomas (Coventry City, Free Transfer), Chris Martin (Fulham, season long loan).
Ins - James Wilson (Manchester United, season long loan), Matej Vydra (Watford, £8m).

Starting with the less high profile moves. Youth players Shaquille McDonald and Kwame Thomas were allowed to leave on frees to other clubs. This is no great surprise, McDonald was fairly old when we brought him in from Peterborough and he never got anywhere near the first team, whilst Thomas always seemed to lack the technique required to make the jump up as a target man.

Who else had forgotten that Conor Sammon was a Derby player? It's okay, you can admit it. It seems so long ago that he actually played for us, like it was in another life. For all his faults; the lack of ball control, the inability to cleanly connect with the football and poor attempts at link-up play, I will miss Conor. I don't think I've ever seen someone work so hard on a football pitch (Craig Bryson and N'Golo Kante not included). There was something endearing about his terrier-like chasing of the ball and he did actually score some important goals for us over the years. I suspect his sheer physical presence will mean he isn't an absolute disaster up in Scotland.
Chris Martin's departure left a bitter taste, as Fulham snapped him up. (Action Images)
Now then. I could put the next and final three transfers in their own article and it still wouldn't be enough.  First of of all the departure of Chris Martin. From an on the pitch perspective it is in keeping with what Pearson apparently wants. Pearson's ideal team has quick, pacy forwards constantly pressing and running in behind. In matches Martin was clearly trying to do this, but this isn't his game; we know, he knows and Pearson knows it.

So with no obvious place in the team for him Pearson ships him out to Fulham. The loan fee is a considerable £3 million and from what I gather the option to buy at the end is takes the overall total to near £10 million. This is good money for a striker who doesn't fit. It's poor money when the likes of Kodjia leave for Aston Villa for £4 million more despite having a poorer scoring record. This doesn't even take into account the fact that he's leaving for a Fulham team who look like they will be up there challenging for promotion this season meaning we've most likely strengthened a promotion rival.

The arrival of James Wilson on a season long loan from Manchester United on the face of it looks like a decent move. Very highly rated at Old Trafford he was on loan at Brighton last year where he scored 5 goals in 25 games, not the greatest return for a striker. He did score two good instinctive goals against Derby last season, but he was very much in and out of the Brighton team last season and didn't seem to have much of an impact in open play. His inexperience was clear and whilst this is obviously the reason he has been loaned out, it doesn't exactly fill me with confidence.

Matej Vydra signed from Watford for £8 million, a club record fee. (skysports.com)
Matej Vydra would appear to be a better signing. 36 goals in two seasons in the Championship with Watford make for impressive reading with his pace and ability running in behind making him threat.  However, a poor season on loan at Reading last season saw him score only 3 league goals. This was in the same team that saw Nick Blackman score 11 goals, so not a very flattering comparison given Blackman's contribution since joining the club.

I'm not sure how optimistic to be with this signing. He is obviously everything Pearson wants; fast, hard working and with an eye for goal, but his struggles last season bear some resemblance to the ones we've had so far this season. Reading's midfield was poor last season and creativity low; most of Blackman's goals for them were shots from outside the area and Vydra struggled with the lack of service. Vydra's best seasons have come with a partner up front (Troy Deeney), giving him through balls and helping take attention off of him. I would have thought that Martin was the perfect partner in this regard and I have been of the opinion that Martin has needed a partner to help him out recently as well; someone who can get on the end of his flicks. 

Pearson has decided this isn't the case, but I'm not so hopeful. I'm of the opinion that if Vydra and Wilson are going to be successes here without the likes of Martin supplying them, then something has to change in midfield. The midfield two that Pearson likes to employ is simply too lightweight and sitting too deep at the moment. This has led to a distinct lack of creativity further forward as our most creative midfielders are basically sitting on top of the back four in order to get the ball and it has made our strikers isolated. I don't think this will suddenly change now that we've signed some pacy players.

Nigel Pearson still has work to do before thinks click into place (skysports.com)
Overall Thoughts
I have mixed thoughts about this window. On the one hand, we have brought in a couple of good quality players; I have high expectations in particular of Vydra and Anya who have both shown their qualities in this league time and time again. Selling Jeff Hendrick was a good bit of business for all parties; we get what is probably his maximum value and he gets the chance to test himself in the Premier League.

However I'm of the opinion that we have not fixed the underlying problem that has caused our poor start to the season - central midfield. We should have shipped out some more of the midfielders and brought in some truly suited to the system Pearson clearly wants to play. At the moment it seems that he's asking Bryson and Will Hughes to do things that they aren't really suited to; drop deep and pick the ball up, shield the defence. They'll try their hardest doing it and may even have some success, but this isn't what they are best at - I can see it, the fans can see it and Pearson would have to be as blind as a mole to not see it. He should have bought some players in who are truly suited to it, but that hasn't happened.

I wasn't happy with Martin going on loan last night and although I understand the reasons for it, I'm still not happy with it now. This is without a doubt putting all of our eggs in one basket, with regards to a playing style; there's no going back now to hold up play and midfielders surging forward. Should Vydra get injured, there's no one I would trust us to fall back on; Bent? Old and past it. Blackman? Never had it.

It was all going so well until that Martin loan. A lot fans weren't happy either. I know people were expecting it but they were also hoping we had a replacement lined up. What happened instead? The club announced the signing of a 34 year old goalkeeper, who will be lucky to get on the bench! That was truly amateurish from the club; it was obvious that Weale had signed up earlier, so not announce it earlier? Did they truly think the fan reaction would be anything other than fury? Absolutely bizarre from the club.

Things might still change at the club. The loan window opens soon and I suspect we may find a few more players on the way out of the club, some of whom fans may be happy to see the back of, others not so much.  

Sunday 7 August 2016

Derby County 0 Brighton 0

Finally the new season has arrived. The divisive Darren Wassall has returned to his position as Academy Director and has been replaced by divisive former boss of Leicester City, Nigel Pearson. Near enough every Derby fan I've spoken to agreed with the appointment, but Pearson is still something of a bold choice; no chairmen will be barging into his dressing room this season.

Out with old and in with the new as they say; or in Derby's case out with the unwanted and in with nobody at all. Last summers very expensive outlay means that Mel Morris hasn't had to spend a penny this summer. Whether that be for financial reasons or footballing reasons remains to be seen. Jake Buxton will surely be given a very warm reception on his return to the iPro with Wigan later in the season, whilst we'll be lucky to ever see or hear from Raul Albentosa again!

Brighton were Derby's first opponents this season. I thought Brighton were very unlucky not to go up last season and finishing 11 points ahead of us was certainly no fluke. The addition of Oliver Norwood from Reading was an astute piece of business from Chris Hughton that adds a little bit of depth to their central midfield. For the match today, midfield maestro Dale Stephens was suspended whilst Bruno Salter was shifted to centre back to accommodate for an injury to Connor Goldson.

Derby's Starting XI against Brighton
There were major surprises for Pearson's first competitive starting XI, with the likes of Will Hughes, Chris Martin, Johnny Russell and Craig Forsyth missing out. Forsyth missed out as his partner went into labour (I was sorely tempted to go to the hospital and punch the baby back into his partner's womb), but the inclusion of Johnson over Russell was the biggest surprise to this observer.


Derby started the first half brightly seemingly intent to disprove my misgivings, passing the ball about with verve and vigour. Tom Ince was particularly influential in the early moments making runs from deep and stretching the Brighton back four. Several chances came and flashed past untaken; Darren Bent put a Cyrus Christie cross over the bar, whilst Ince contrived to fire straight at David Stockdale when it was easier to score.

Then after about 20 minutes Brighton clicked into gear and slammed on the Derby brakes. No space was to be found behind the compact midfield and Derby were left passing it around their back four. Suddenly it was exactly like the start of last season under Paul Clement; slow, laboured passing with a lack of composure in the middle, leaving the forward players isolated.

Going forward for Brighton the big figure of Glenn Murray was a handful for Richard Keogh all day long whilst the wingers Jiri Skalak and Anthony Knockaert were constantly threatening. Several very good chances came and went for Brighton with a combination of saves from Scott Carson and brave blocks from Jason Shackell and Craig Bryson keeping the Seagulls at bay.

It became a question of when Pearson would change it, not if he would change it. Finally in came Hughes for the beleaguered Bradley Johnson, who poor as he was didn't deserve the cheers that greeted his withdrawal. A change in formation too, switching to 4-3-2-1, and although things improved a little Derby lacked the width at full back to make it work. Still, we became a little more solid as a result, with Hughes adding some bite to the midfield that Johnson simply wasn't.

Martin and Butterfield later joined the fray, but apart from a couple of long range shots, little changed. I was amused and alarmed in equal measure to see Pearson order Martin out wide, completely failing to understand what has made him so successful at this club since his arrival and ignoring an actual wide player in Johnny Russell on the bench. Even so, right at the death Bent had the chance to head home a late winner from Christie's cross, but Stockdale was out quickly to smother the shot. A goal would have been incredibly harsh on Brighton who more than deserved their point and in all honesty probably should have gone home with all three.

View on the Opposition
  • Chris Hughton's team showed that they will be right up there at the top of the league again this season. I was particularly impressed by Murray, Skalak and Beram Kayal. They played us off the park with their regular right back playing at centre back and their best midfielder (in my opinion) suspended. It was the perfect away performance and the quality of their set pieces suggests that even if they do get outplayed occasionally this season then they can still be a goal threat. 
  • I would go so far as to suggest that barring any injury plagues then Brighton may well go up as champions or push Newcastle all the way for the title this season. But as Derby fans, we all know it isn't that simple.
Craig Bryson chases down the ball against Brighton (@dcfcofficial)
View on the Rams
  • I know it's early days in the Pearson era and you can't take too much from these early season matches, but this was still a worrying performance from the players and the manager. A combination of Johnson and Baird on the Derby left created a perfect storm of conditions, the result being a vacuum of footballing ability. There was no point even attempting to go down the left hand side, there was no threat. 
  • All pre-season Pearson has been talking about pace and how he wants his teams to play fast and be 100% committed to the cause. Now, Johnson may be the latter, but he certainly isn't the former and he lacks the technique required to make up for that on the wing. Johnny Russell on the bench is both those things and even later in the match when we were crying out for width Pearson ignored him. 
  • Nick Blackman, Ince and Bent played well in the first half, but their influence wained as Derby became starved of the ball. I was impressed with Blackman's direct running. He could do with improving his crossing a bit, but I can see him becoming an important player for us this season.
  • The midfield two of Hendrick and Bryson dropped too deep looking for the ball, leaving Ince and Bent isolated up front. This is where we really missed Hughes or George Thorne; a player in the middle of the park who  can stamp their authority on game and carry/move the ball forward either through skill, sheer physicality or a mixture of both. Hendrick and Bryson for all their good points simply can't do that.

On to Grimsby in the cup. It'll be interesting to see what changes Pearson makes; does he tell the same team to go out and prove that they deserve to start on Saturday, or does he play some of the subs and tell them that there are places up for grabs?

Tuesday 10 May 2016

Journalism in Lower League Football

This blogpost has been in the brewing for a couple of months now. In fact ever since Mel Morris took the decision to relieve Paul Clement of his duties as Head Coach at Derby County I have been looking far more closely at the national media with regards to the reporting of football in the lower leagues.

The reaction of the national media to Clement's sacking was very much the same as most Derby fans; shock. What happened afterwards was very different though. As Mel Morris gave the reasons for his decision including the words "Derby Way" and "Promotion isn't the priority" everyone took stock trying to figure out what they meant. Derby fans; or at least a majority of Derby fans saw the reasoning and came to a similar conclusion that Morris had come to - harsh though it was, the sacking was for the greater good.

Paul Clement was sacked in February after the teams poor performances (Fabio De Paola)
The various news outlet of the national media reacted rather differently with many questioning the decision and openly stating that it would come back to bite us in the arse. As recently as yesterday, 3 months after the sacking, there were still pieces expressing confusion. This would suggest a distinct lack of detailed research into the topic. Anyone who had seen more than 5 matches prior to Clement's sacking could've seen exactly what most Derby fans have recognised since; a defensive-minded team relying on moments of magic to scrape out 1-0 victories. This simply isn't viable in the long term unless you have truly world class players.

The way football journalism tends to work is interesting when it comes to national newspapers. The big papers focus on the Premier League - why wouldn't they? That's what most of their audience wants to read about. Within this they tend to have reporters who cover specific areas; John Percy covers the Midlands for the Daily Telegraph, Louise Taylor covers the North-East for the Guardian etc. Even so most of these journalist converse about their areas with other football correspondents at their papers - or at least I would hope so!

It is a tough balancing act. There is a lot of football to cover; in the Midlands there could be 7 Midlands clubs in the Championship alone next season. I'm sure it's tough for one person (John Percy in this case) to stay abreast of all developments in these clubs. It would be very tough for them to be as knowledgeable as a fan of each club; to know not only the results,who scored and when, but also to know how good the performance was, what the positives and negatives of each performance were. Of course this would be expected for Premier League teams like Leicester City, West Bromwich Albion and Stoke City, but not for those in the lower leagues.
John Percy could have to cover 7 Championship teams next season. (telegraph.co.uk)
You would be far more suited looking to the local papers such as the Derby Telegraph for in-depth discussion (or in some case factual discussion) of lower league teams. Even though Derby are a big club* and are only one league below the Premier League some reporting left me clawing at my eyes. There was a lot stated in the press about how Derby were fifth in the league, only five points from the top of the league and saying how this was a decision based on wanting promotion at all costs. I've detailed rebuttals to all of this in a previous blog post. Respected journalists were coming out with this stuff, stating how it didn't make sense when Morris explained everything clearly and concisely.

* I am fully aware of how bad using the term 'big club' makes me sound. What I mean is that in terms of readership we would be a big club - over 23,000 season ticket holders and over one million people living in Derbyshire is not a small potential readership base.

This is beginning to sound like a rant. Next you know I'll be talking about some kind of anti-Derby conspiracy! However I know it's not only Derby who suffer from this. I was at an interview recently and I got talking to somebody there. This man is a Barnsley fan, born and bred. We were talking about Lee Johnson leaving Barnsley just outside the playoffs and going to Bristol City. The national press were talking about the great job that Johnson had done at Barnsley to get them that high in the league and I asked this man if he thought Barnsley would miss Johnson. I was a little surprised when he said no and that despite turning around their appalling start to the season they would cope well without him. I was a little skeptical but here we are at the end of the season and Barnsley are in the playoffs.
Lee Johnson left Barnsley for Bristol City in February.

In that same conversation this man mentioned that it appeared that Clement had been hard done by, to be sacked in fifth place and five points of top. I explained to him my point of view and we both came to a similar conclusion - there are things that the national press miss, especially when it comes to lower league football. You can't just look at the results of a team and automatically come to a conclusion about whether a sacking was the right one - you have to actually see the team in action for at least several matches, not just watch them on Sky if they happen to be on.


This is an unavoidable fact of supporting team not in the Premier League, you get less coverage in the media and that which you do get is of lower quality. From a journalists perspective I'm sure there is so much to cover that it's inevitable that some things get lost in the hustle and bustle of it all. That knowledge doesn't make me any less frustrated when the media comes out with ill-informed articles and uses this to back up arguments. 

The article that tipped me over the edge and contributed to the synthesis of this article was this one by Daniel Taylor in the Guardian. In his blog Mr Taylor talks about how sacking managers rarely makes sense and includes the sacking of Clement as one of his examples. Now, Daniel Taylor is an exceptional journalist (if you ignore the fact that he supports Forest), and I'm sure he is extremely well-versed in matters taking place in Manchester where he was based before becoming the papers Chief Football Writer.

It's worth noting Mr Taylor that despite what your piece implies, Clement was not sacked for our league position, he was sacked for dour football and a lack of integration of academy players into the main squad. Promotion is a secondary target this season, the main target was to built on the expansive football that Nigel Clough introduced and Steve McClaren took further and to that extent Darren Wassall has succeeded as far as he can in three months. I can accept people on opposition and online football forums being uninformed, but not top journalists who are supposed to know their stuff.

Another team mentioned in the article is Huddersfield Town. Huddersfield sacked Chris Powell when they 18th and finished the league in 19th position. On the face of it this adds to Taylor's argument, but Huddersfield's improvement since Powell's sacking on the pitch was remarkable. They went from a team that was poor away from home and struggling to score goals, to a team full of attacking verve who were lovely to watch. Improvement is not only measured by results and I'm sure if Mr Taylor had seen many of their matches since that sacking would've noticed that. 

A piece by Daniel Taylor was the inspiration for this piece/rant. (@DTguardian)
I'm going to finish what has definitely turned into a rant with an aside. Mr Taylor mentioned that Derby are now 11 points from the automatic promotion places - what would you make of Sheffield Wednesday then who are 3 points further behind us than at the time of the sacking, or Hull who are still only five points ahead of Derby at the end of the season. Hull were second in the league when Clement was sacked, yet no mention of Hull's poor performance in the second half of the season can be found in the national media.

Perhaps that's more of an indictment of the national media's general apathy towards lower league football in general. Lower league football doesn't sell views and readers like the Premier League does; is that because people are less interested? Is it because there is simply less quality journalism about it? Or maybe it's both - there's less reporting on the lower leagues, so less people read it? There are hundreds of enticing and riveting stories going on in the lower leagues and personally I think it's a shame that many don't get reported upon and that when they do, they are often reported poorly or to fit a larger narrative that they don't fit.

Sunday 1 May 2016

The Playoffs - Hull City

Continuing our trawl through the playoff contenders we meet Hull City. Hull, like Derby have been assured of a playoff place for the past couple of weeks, having only dropped out of the race for automatic promotion at the start of April. A 4-0 loss to Derby followed by a 2-2 draw against Huddersfield left them trailing behind the top three and they've been unable to make up the ground since.

Given the relative positions of Derby and Hull it is highly likely that these two teams will contest the 4th place vs 5th place playoff with Hull currently in pole position to gain the advantage of having the second leg played at the KC Stadium. Unlike in the previous article about the top three I think I'll go a bit more in depth for this one, so if I get anything wrong please feel free to correct me Hull fans.

Steve Bruce
Everybody knows Steve Bruce. The lovable Geordie who helped Alex Ferguson win his first Premier League title as a player and subsequently gave him 6 points every season as a manager. Currently in his fourth season at the club, there can be no doubt that he is an effective championship manager; a second straight promotion push for his second season in the championship makes sure of that. However, there have been murmurs of discontent among the fans since their disintegration against Arsenal in the 2013/2014 FA Cup final - doubts about his ability to spot flair players and more importantly, integrate them into the starting eleven remain.

Steve Bruce is not universally loved in Hull (PA)
One perfect example of this is Tom Ince. Signing for Hull on a free transfer after his contract with Blackpool expired, the signs looked good. To have rejected Inter Milan - so his dad would have you believe - in favour of regular playing time in England is a move that should be applauded. Things quickly fell apart for Tom once the regular season started though, being played as one of the front two in Bruce's 3-5-2 formation. This was a baffling decision from an experienced manager - why play a man who made his name as a left winger given the freedom to express himself as a striker who has to hold the ball up and chase down lost causes?

Either Bruce didn't watch Ince before bringing him in which is worrying in itself, or even worse he saw him and played him in that position anyway. After three starts and a handful of substitute appearances Ince was done at Hull, sent on loan to Nottingham Forest where he struggled in Stuart Pearce's free falling side before eventually winding up at Steve McClaren's free falling Derby. The poor guy couldn't catch a break last season but he still performed well enough on loan for Derby to buy him out of his contract at Hull in July, against Bruce's will.

Formation
This season Bruce has dropped his 3-5-2 formation and has been swapping between 4-4-2 and 4-4-1-1 as seen below. In the premier league Bruce relied on to aggressive wing backs to track up and down the side of the pitch - Robbie Brady and Ahmed Elmohamady. However, with the sale of Brady to Norwich City in the summer and the recruitment of the more orthodox Moses Odubajo a change of formation was required. 
Hull's formation has swung between 4-4-2 and 4-4-1-1 this season. Players chosen by best rated player in position in that formation, not the most appearances.

The above formations can both be very telling and misleading at the same time. For example, even though he doesn't appear in any of the above formations Tom Huddlestone has made more starting appearances than David Meyler this season, a discrepancy most likely due to Meyler's injury problems this season (or maybe Meyler's just been really inconsistent? Hull fans, let me know which one it is). Robert Snodgrass' inclusion should be surprising given his late return this season after injury, but it shows that since his return Elmohamady has been pushed out of the side and 4-4-1-1 has been the formation of choice for the Tigers. One other thing to be noted is that centre backs Harry Maguire and Alex Bruce have made 26 starts between them this season, perhaps indicating an unsettled partnership in central defence. Other than that though, as can be seen above there has been a fairly consistent starting eleven for Hull this season.

On the Pitch
A couple of weeks ago I mentioned Derby's 4-0 drubbing of Hull in one of my posts. While I didn't go very in depth as to why that happened I feel I should return to it; Hull will most likely be Derby's opponents in the playoffs so we should attempt to learn everything we can about how they play. With a 6-0 aggregate score (2-0 away, 4-0 home) over the two matches the teams have played this season, to the casual viewer it would appear that we already have their number.

Hull's starting eleven vs Derby (05/11/15)
In the game at the KC Stadium Bruce went for a bizarre 4-3-3 formation looking to match up to us man for man. With first choice left back Andrew Robertson injured, Odubajo was shifted to left back and Elmohamady to right back and Harry Maguire filled in for the injured Michael Dawson.

Now forget everything I have just said and look at that team sheet to the left. Does that look like a team with everybody playing in their natural positions:
Mohamed Diame - a central midfielder playing as a winger.
Shaun Maloney - a central attacking midfielder playing as a winger.
Sam Clucas - a left sided utility player in central midfield.
Odubajo - A right back playing at left back.
Huddlestone - A defensive midfielder pushed up into central midfield.

That's at least five players being played out of position - I'll direct you to the section above talking about Bruce playing players out of position.  Hull went on to dominate possession in that match and carve out several good opportunities against Paul Clement's defensive, counter-attacking Derby side. Looking back on it, a draw would've been a fair result and a draw would've been the result if Carson hadn't pulled off some heroics. Still, I wouldn't place to much stock in gleaning potential future results from this fixture - Hull had several key players injured and Derby were being managed by a man who would later be sacked for playing the wrong brand of football. A better comparison might be the meeting between the two sides in April.
Hull's starting eleven vs Derby (02/04/16)
 For this match Hull set up in a much more familiar 4-4-1-1 formation with Huddlestone and Livermore anchoring the midfield. This seemed like a much more balanced Hull side with as far as I can tell only Diame playing slightly out of position. We all know what happened next - Derby thumped them like an abusive playground bully, only our fists were actually good passing moves. Why did this happen?

The most important thing to note is how the attacking two - Diame and Sone Aluko were on a completely different page from the rest of team. I can only assume that they were doing exactly what Bruce told them to do, they harried the Derby backline, putting pressure on the ball as a pair. This is a good idea; as we all know, Jason Shackell is not the greatest on the ball and Keogh has a (somewhat unfair) reputation for choking when put under pressure.

The problem is that Huddlestone and Livermore either couldn't or wouldn't move up to help press, meaning all Shackell and Keogh had to do was play a 5 yard pass to the centre circle where George Thorne was waiting. At this point Huddlestone and Livermore would realise the danger and try to push out, but it was too late by then; Thorne in turn only had to play a 10 yard pass to one of Craig Bryson or Bradley Johnson who would be free to run at Davies and Dawson.

Now I'm about to do something I've done rarely this season - praise Jason Shackell. I have criticised him time and time again this season for dwelling on the ball too often and refusing to pass to anyone other than Keogh. Against Hull he surprised me. When Livermore and Huddlestone moved out to help the front two press Shackell would simply caress the ball into Chris Martin at chest height. Martin saw the space vacated by the two central midfielders and dropped in away from the Davies and Dawson who were unwilling to move out of position. With no midfielders crowding around him Martin was able to hold the ball up and bring the midfield into play.

This seems to be a case of Bruce getting the front two wrong. The very slow midfield pairing of Huddlestone and Livermore would have coped perfectly well against Derby if the entire team had been told to drop in and play on the break, but Aluko and Diame seemed to have other ideas. To be fair to Bruce there is a distinct lack of pace available to be able to do this - Snodgrass is pretty slow for a winger and Clucas isn't the fastest. Hull did improve when bringing top scorer Abel Hernandez and the tricky Shaun Maloney off the bench.

From what I can tell I suspect Bruce was hoping for Livermore and Huddlestone to outmuscle the Derby midfield, but Thorne and Johnson were more than a match for them, while the effervescent Bryson buzzed around them. A lesson learned for Bruce perhaps? I wonder if Bruce had been braver and started Hernandez if the game and result might have been different - he presents a different kind of challenge for defenders than the terrier-like work rate of Aluko.
Tom Huddlestone and Jake Livermore were comfortably outmanoeuvred at the iPro.
How will Hull play against us in the playoffs?
Since the defeat to Derby Hull have tended to start with a 4-4-2 formation, with Hernandez partnering Adama Diomande more often than not. Bruce and Maguire have also started several games as have Akpom and Maloney. Either Bruce decided to start rotating his squad quite early, he's had injury problems or he still cannot decide on his best eleven more than 40 games into the season. Just an idle observation - I noticed that against Huddersfield Snodgrass was played as one of the strikers in a 3-5-2 formation. Where does that sound familiar, a winger being played as a striker?

It seems there is no point in trying to determine what Bruce will go with as his starting eleven vs Derby. It will most likely be similar to what we saw at the iPro, with Hernandez coming in to lead the line and perhaps Maloney replacing Diame. If Bruce is smart in the away game at the iPro he will get his team to sit back and try to hit Derby on the break; countless teams have done that this season and Derby rarely cope well with it. Still, Bruce needs to drop one of Livermore or Huddlestone for a more mobile central midfielder, one who can contribute offensively and defensively; they are both too similar at the moment.

Whatever team Bruce selects, I would expect Derby to press high up the pitch like they have tended to do since Darren Wassall took over. Dawson and Davies aren't the most comfortable with the ball at their feet and in both post-match interviews this season Bruce has remarked how his team have made a lot more mistakes than usual during the match. I wonder if this is due to Derby's ability to press high up the pitch which doesn't normally happen against Hull.

Despite everything that Derby have done right against Hull so far this season, Hull are still a remarkably tough nut to crack - they've only conceded 34 goals this season (the second lowest in the league). In fact if they hadn't conceded those six goals against us they would have the best record in the league. They also have the third best disciplinary record - it's worth mentioning that Derby have the fourth best.
Darren Wassall will need to find a way past Bruce's resolute Hull side
Final Thoughts
The playoffs are a completely different ballgame to the regular season. Both teams will be up for it, but both will also know the consequences should they mess up. The matches will most likely be tight affairs either settled by one moment of magic or by a colossal f*** up. If Derby do play Hull I suspect we might just have too much for them - with our first choice midfield finally reaching fitness and a manager finally learning to put players in their natural positions there's no reason to fear them.
Hull will most likely feel the same way - they have players who are more than capable of destroying teams on their day, it's just a case of if their manager is good enough to get them to do so.

Wednesday 27 April 2016

The Playoffs - The Top Three

The end is near. After 46 games (44 at the time of writing) the teams ranked 3rd to 6th position in the table will compete with one another for a place in the Premier League. As Derby fans well know, the playoffs can either be one of the most joyous or most horrible experiences in the life of a football fan. With Derby's place in the competition confirmed a couple of weeks ago the only real question has been who will be joining them?

The Top Three
This season like many others before it has seen three teams jump ahead of the chasing pack and fight for the two automatic promotion places. However, normally one team breaks free to claim the title in the last few weeks of the season. This hasn't happened this season and it increasingly looks like the race will go down to the last game of the regular season - with two games to go Burnley, Middlesbrough and Brighton are all on the same points total with a goal difference of three separating them all.

Burnley, Middlesbrough and Brighton have surged ahead of the rest of the championship
Brighton
Brighton have very much been the surprise package this season, shocking everyone with their carefree, attacking football (much like Derby under Steve McClaren) under the tutelage of Chris Hughton.

The midfield duo of Beram Kayal and Dale Stephens have been a force to be reckoned with this season with the 35 year old Bruno Saltor defying his age to be the best full back in the division. When they played us earlier in the season I was impressed by the speed at which they attacked us - there was no hesitation and they were comfortably one of the best teams I've seen this year. It's interesting to note that Stephen's name was linked with us before we splurged money on Bradley Johnson and Jacob Butterfield in August.

They are very hard to beat. A lot has been made of their record breaking start to the season where they went 21 matches unbeaten, but I would argue that they've been even more impressive since the start of the January transfer window. After losing 4 straight games after boxing day they have only lost once - a remarkable 4-1 defeat to Cardiff on the 20th of February. They are the form team in the championship over the last 6 games and the last 10 games.

Key to this has been the signing of Anthony Knockaert from Standard Liege in January. The mercurial French wide man has played in the championship before with Leicester; he was a menace then and he's a menace now, having scored 5 goals and set up 5 more for Brighton since his arrival. The top scorers in the league show no sign of slowing down having scored an impressive 12 goals in their last 3 matches. Israeli striker Tomer Hemed can take a lot of credit for this having been involved in 23 goals this season, only Ross McCormack (Fulham), Andre Gray (Burnley), Alan Judge (Brentford) and Chris Martin (Derby) have been involved in more.
Tomer Hemed has contributed to Brighton's status as the league's top goalscorers (Paul Hazlewood)
Burnley
While Brighton have been this years surprise package, Burnley are right where everyone expected them to be. Having held on to the highly rated Sean Dyche, they have played exactly the same way they played in their promotion season several years ago - 'functional' would be the best word to describe them. This style of play doesn't win them many plaudits among neutrals and opposition supporters. Having lost only 5 games all season, they are the epitome of the phrase tough to beat.

A classic 442 team, they have plenty of bite in midfield in Joey Barton and David Jones, but it's worth remembering that there are plenty of talented players in that team. Derby fans will know just how well Jones can play and how much of a threat he is from set pieces, while it's no coincidence that Barton has played for England (even if it was just once). George Boyd and Scott Arfield are a talented pair of wingers and the pace of Andre Gray works well with the strength of Sam Vokes. Many people thought they would struggle having sold Jason Shackell to Derby in the summer, but they replaced him well with Michael Keane stepping up well to fill the void left by their former captain.

Bearing in mind all that has been said above, it should come as no surprise that 38% of Burnley's goals come from set pieces, the joint second highest in the championship with Bolton, but still way behind Blackburn (52%). For comparison the three lowest teams? Sheffield Wednesday (16%), Derby County (18%) and Hull City (19%). On the other hand, they know when to push their luck with the referee, accruing no red cards all season whilst only being booked 48 times. This would seem to fly in the face of the idea that they're a dirty team, when the stats seem to suggest that good old Leeds are the ones living up to old titles with an impressive 94 yellows and 3 red cards so far this season.

The signing of Andre Gray was a real coup for them in the summer; his 22 goals and 7 assists this season have really pushed Burnley on, with his pace and willingness to run in behind allowing him to stretch defences. This gives the likes of Boyd and Arfield the chance to cut inside, into the space vacated by Gray and the covering defenders.
Andre Gray has fired Burnley up the league (PA Archive Images)
Middlesbrough
On to our final team. Having lost out in the playoff final last season, Aitor Karanka's team will be hoping to go one better this time and hopefully avoid the playoffs all together. If one statistic can sum up Middlesbrough's season it's this one - 28 goals conceded. Sure, that figure is likely to rise before the end of the season, but even so it's an impressive number. With 21 clean sheets, Boro's defence has been their main asset this season, with Daniel Ayala (another ex-Derby player) being central to their success. At left back George Friend has been superb both in defence and in supporting the attack while on the opposite side of the defence Emilio Nsue has done a similar job.

The midfield pairing of Adam Clayton and Grant Leadbitter have proved that last season was no fluke and that they are a formidable pairing in this division. From afar it would appear that Stewart Downing has had a disappointing season. Signed for a fee of around £5.5 million last July, Downing has only scored/set up 8 goals this season which is a poor return for someone of his ability. Help me out here Boro fans - has he really been that bad?

The defensive mindset of Karanka has it's advantages and has it's drawbacks. This style means that Boro are very tough to score against, especially if they manage to score first on the break - they have only dropped 4 points from winning positions all season (in away draws against Derby and Burnley). The pace of Albert Adomah and the clever positioning of David Nugent makes this a successful strategy, whilst Friend is always eager to provide an overlap on the left hand side of the pitch.

However, this style also means that they find it difficult to break teams down when the opposition choose to sit in and play compact. The matches where points have been dropped tend to have been against teams that are lower down in the table; 2 losses against Bristol City, a loss and a defeat against Blackburn, and draws against Preston, Leeds and Rotherham. Should they fail to make it up this season, those matches will be looked back on as missed opportunities.

This was a problem last season and they have made strides to address this area of concern - signing Downing (£5.5 million), Nugent (£4 million) and Christian Stuani (£3.6 million) in the summer, whilst the prolific Jordan Rhodes (£9 million) was brought in in January along with Gaston Ramirez (loan) and Kike Sola (loan). That is a lot of money spent for not much end product; Boro scored more goals last season.
Has Stewart Downing had a disappointing season? (skysports.com)
Playoffs
One of these teams will not get automatic promotion - it is a mathematical certainty that 3 teams cannot fit into 2 automatic promotion places. One of these teams will most likely finish third in the table.

On the face of it Burnley hold all the cards - top on goal difference, they face mid-table QPR at Turf Moor before heading to the Valley on the final day of the season to face relegated Charlton. QPR could be a tricky proposition; since Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink's appointment as manager no team have drawn more games than QPR and a draw would certainly dent Burnley's hopes. A loss would be catastrophic, for reasons that will be looked at in a moment.

Middlesbrough and Brighton are far tougher to predict. Boro face Birmingham at St Andrews next, a game that depending on which Birrmingham side show up could either be an even match up, or a walk in the park for Boro. Brighton meanwhile host Derby at the Falmer stadium in a game that should be an even contest; a draw was the result between the two teams earlier in the season and if Brighton try to attack the Rams there will be space on the break for the likes of Johnny Russell and Tom Ince.

This leads up to the final match; Boro host Brighton at the Riverside on the last day of the season. It couldn't have been written much better to be honest. Both Boro and Brighton can lose in their next match and still go up if they win this one by a large enough goal difference. What will come out on top - the championships best defence or the championships best attack? I'd put my money on Brighton, but only if you put a gun to my head. Even then, if Burnley lose against QPR and both these teams win their respective matches, a draw will be enough to see both teams up. Tight margins at the end of the season.

My picks for promotion: Burnley as champions, Brighton in second place with Middlesbrough pipped to the line by one point. Even so, whichever team ends up in the playoffs will be the team to beat, just as they have been all season.

I can hear Boro fans shouting and howling at me already. I'm prepared for the inevitable backlash that would happen should I be proved wrong, but hey it's football in the most unpredictable league in the world. You've got to be prepared to be wrong some of the time. What do you think Burnley fans, going up as champions? How about you Boro fans, looking forward to proving me wrong? Brighton fans, can you prove people wrong one more time?

Thursday 14 April 2016

Three Centre Backs, Two Matches and One Angry Fan

It's amazing the difference 72 hours can make. At 10pm on Saturday evening I was furious and to those who know my relationship with football, that should come as a shock. I don't tend to get angry when it comes to Derby County; why bother being angry about something that is beyond your control? At 10pm on Tuesday I was on a high, having just seen Derby thrash Hull 4-0 at the iPro.

I had thought about doing a post on Saturday but that would have been a straight up character assassination of several people at the club; I would rather not have my name associated with that type of work. Thankfully, the result on Tuesday has given me the opportunity to do a classic compare and contrast - why did everything go so wrong on Saturday and why did everything go so right on Tuesday?

It would be very easy to say platitudes about round pegs in round holes. There is no doubt that team selection plays a part, but they don't explain such a huge difference in the level of team performance. They do play some part though, so I'll mention them. There were two differences in the team that beat Hull from the one that tamely surrendered to Cardiff. Jamie Hanson was replaced by Cyrus Christie and Johnny Russell came in for Jacob Butterfield. This was not a like for like swap (as can be seen below); Johnson was moved into central midfield where he's far more comfortable whilst Ince took up a position on the left wing. Hanson, a player that I have high hopes for is not a natural right back, especially when compared to the far more experienced Christie.

Against Cardiff, Johnson's lack of first touch and pace made him an ineffective outlet. This combined with Ince's one footedness hindering his ability to create with the ball at his feet. Hanson, for all of his defensive solidity very rarely made it past the halfway line and his distribution was poor. Compare this to what we saw against Hull. Johnson playing the centre of the park was able to use his strength and overall physical prowess to good effect, supporting the attack through middle. Ince on the left of the front three was able to go both inside and outside of Moses Odubajo, as opposed to just cutting inside like he does when played on the right. The introduction of Russell also added some much needed urgency to the front line. Russell also cuts inside most of the time but unlike Ince, Russell's darting runs are done at a quicker pace and are less intricate in their construction giving the opposition less time to double up on him.

These positional changes do influence results, but not to an extent that it can explain a 5 goal swing. Players, both ours and the opposition play their part. 

Cardiff
Cardiff set up with a classic 442 with two energetic central midfielders in the shape of Joe Ralls and Stuart O'Keefe who were first to every loose ball and Anthony Pilkington dropping deep to pressure Thorne. This prevented Thorne and Derby from dominating the midfield, and indeed has become a common and effective tactic used by many teams this season. Craig Noone was also very diligent in tracking back to help cover Olsson's supporting runs on the left flank; the one time Olsson slipped through he set up Martin for our goal. Ince was guided inside to the waiting Ralls by Scott Malone time and time again, and with Hanson rarely overlapping was too easy to dispossess. I can't help but feel that with an ageing Peter Whittingham on that wing Christie would've had a field day.
Bruno Manga dominated Chris Martin and scored one goal (walesonline.co.uk)
Now I'm going to go on a bit of a rant. Cardiff's two centre backs were absolutely dominant in the are with Bruno Manga being the standout and this is absolutely fine; you come up against teams like that sometimes. In the first 5 minutes it became very apparent that Martin would win nothing against Manga. With this in mind, it should have been obvious that if balls up to Martin were going to pay off, he'd have to play against Sean Morrison, the other centre back. However, every single long ball, whether it be from Carson's goal kicks or Shackell's hoofs, went in the direction of Manga. At one point Martin had moved across to Morrison's side in an effort to free himself of Manga and Carson just kicked it straight to the Gabonese! I wondered if there might some truth to the idea that footballers don't have brains. This was confirmed in the second half when no man was put on the back post for Whittingham's corners despite the fact that Cardiff's first goal had gone in at the back post. Lo and behold, the Cardiff winner goes in at the back post. Two very preventable goals, softly conceded.

Hull
Hull on the other hand went for a 451 formation with Mohamed Diame playing behind Sone Aluko. I can only assume Steve Bruce's plan was for that high energy front two to try and nick the ball off the feet of Thorne or one of the centre backs. This can be the only reason he left his top goalscorer Abel Hernandez (a very talented finisher, but poor workhorse) on the bench. This would be fine if Hull had more than two players pressing the ball, but they didn't. In ex-ram Tom Huddlestone and ex-coke head Jake Livermore, Derby came up against one of the least mobile midfields in the Championship. Ideally, one of them needed to push up and help Diame and Aluko press, but such assistance wasn't forthcoming. Thorne was able to push up into the space that Diame had vacated whilst pressing and Livermore and Huddlestone couldn't move up quick enough to pressure him. As a result Thorne had the freedom of the iPro.

Still, Bruce's game plan would've been fine if Hull hadn't shot themselves in the foot - after all, the onus was still on Derby to score. Curtis Davies, one of the best centre backs in the league slipped allowing Bryson to nip in and Derby took advantage. After that it was one way traffic as Hull panicked and left spaces for Derby to exploit as they looked for an equaliser. In contrast to the laboured forward movement against Cardiff, the team against Hull was fluid and played with a swagger reminiscent of the 13/14 season. It seemed to these untrained eyes that everyone knew their role, knew they could do it well and as a result they did. 
Curtis Davis' mistake against Derby changed the complexion of the match (skysports.com)
Jason Shackell
What to do with the enigma that is Jason Shackell? After the match on Saturday I was convinced that he should be nowhere near my club. There are good things about Shackell; he's solid defensively, very good in air and is a leader (supposedly). Against Cardiff we aw the very worst of him. Going forwards seemed to mean in his mind passing the ball five yards sideways to Keogh or twenty yards backward to Carson. For Cardiff's first goal, he assigned Keogh to mark Manga,a decision I cannot fathom. Shackell must surely know that he's our best defensive header of the ball, so why pass on the opposition's biggest threat to a poorer defender?

What really made my blood boil though was his reaction to an incident late in the first half. Shackell challenged one of the Cardiff players (Pilkington I think), who went down easily. The ref blew for the foul and while Pilkington was on the ground, Shackell kicked him. Kicked him. Whilst he was 2 yards in front of the linesman. If that linesman knew how to do his job he would've told the ref to send Shackell off and if I was Wassall I would've dragged him off at halftime. For one of our most experienced players, a player who is supposed to be a cool head, a man who many were calling to be our captain to do that is unacceptable. Words cannot explain my rage upon seeing that.

To give him his due though, Shackell was much improved against Hull. Jake Buxton had obviously decided to have a word with him in training as his passing forward actually went into the opposition half of the pitch for once. And not only that, but most of it was accurate, to the chest of Martin and as a result actually giving him a chance to bring other players into the match.
Jason Shackell was much improved against Hull (Action Images)
Final Thoughts
The annoying thing about those 72 hours is that they show just how well we can play, yet there was no sign of that level of performance against Cardiff. I'm trying to be as respectful as possible when I say this, but Cardiff are no great shakes. A functional team that punished us from set pieces, like a less efficient Burnley. They were there for the taking and we didn't do that. The important thing to do going forward is to remember what gave us this great result against Hull and what gave us this terrible one against Cardiff.

Sunday 28 February 2016

Missing Craig Forsyth

Amongst all the hullabaloo about the injury woes of Will Hughes and Craig Bryson this season, the loss of one player seems to have passed everyone by. I am of course, talking about our resident Scottish Left Back, Craig Forsyth.

First, A Bit of History
What a steal he has been for the club. Arriving on a free transfer from Watford under Nigel Clough, 'Fozzy' had previously been employed as a winger before being converted to a left back in our time of need - Gareth Roberts wasn't getting any younger. Watford fans were eager to see him go and it was easy to see why; his lack of explosive pace and an inability to deliver accurate crosses made him a poor winger. However, after being converted to a left back (the same position he played in his youth) delivered an upturn in form.

With Clough sacked and Steve McClaren brought in, Forsyth began to hit new heights, with his attacking play down the left becoming one of the cornerstones of the Derby team that reached the playoff final. The season after McClaren asked him to sit back a bit more often, leading a downturn in his fortunes and he finished the season in the worst form of his Derby career. A quivering mess, he looked like a man scared of the ball, which wasn't helped by McClaren moving him to centre back for several games late on in the season.

McClaren left in the summer and was replaced by newcomer Paul Clement. Clearly unsure of the quality of his new squad Clement took to rotating Forsyth with Stephen Warnock, with Forsyth playing primarily in home games and Warnock taking over for away matches. However, he appeared to be making the left back spot his own once again, when he cruelly got injured at home against Queens Park Rangers. Leaping over the sliding challenge of a defender, he twisted his right knee tearing his Anterior Cruciate Ligament and ruling himself out of action for the rest of the season.

With Forsyth out for the season, Warnock took over as first choice left back and in January Marcus Olsson was signed to provide further cover. Warnock is a good player; he rarely loses his one on ones with the opposing winger and has this knack of being at the right place at the right time when the ball is flashed across goal from the opposite side of the pitch. However, he simply doesn't bring as much to the team as Forsyth does.
Craig Forsyth in action (Andy Clarke)
Bringing the Ball out of Defence
When a team is being pressed high up the pitch, it can be tough to pass the ball out from the back, especially if some of your defensive players aren't  particularly comfortable on the ball (looking at you Jason Shackell). This either leads to players being caught on the ball, or long balls being played out from the back; something that I doubt is part of Mel Morris' 'Derby Way'.

Under Steve McClaren and under Clement to a lesser extent, one of our most effective ways of relieving pressure was to loft the ball to Forsyth, who would knock it on to the likes of Chris Martin and Craig Bryson. This was a superb use of his height; it's not very often you get a winger who could challenge 'Fozzy' in the air. It also helped getting the ball forward quickly in a way that you couldn't describe as being route one - it was easy on the eye. Say what you will about the likes of Warnock and Olsson, they simply aren't capable of putting this into practice, making it even more frustrating when we continued with this tactic months after Forsyth got injured.
Stephen Warnock (Andy Clarke)
Attacking Threat
As mentioned earlier, Forsyth doesn't have that rapid acceleration that you tend to find in wingers. What is though, is fast once he gets going. This made him a huge threat on the overlap; players like Bryson and Jamie Ward would simply have to knock the ball into space and there would only be one winner in the foot race between Forsyth and the covering winner. Olsson offers this to a degree, but Warnock either couldn't or wouldn't.

A staple part of Derby's attacking diet in the past couple of seasons has been the full backs whipping in dangerous balls, both from the byline and earlier. Forsyth in particular, was good at whipping it into areas where the strikers and onrushing midfielders should be. Let's not kid ourselves, there were matches when near enough every ball would be shanked behind for a goal kick, or stubbornly refuse to beat the first man. Those days where quite rare however, and in my opinion it's far more preferable to attempt those crosses and not quite pull them off, than to play it safe and not try at all. Warnock when he gets forward is far better at picking out individual players than Forsyth - the problem is he doesn't ever get forward. I have to be honest and say that I've not seen enough of Olsson to form a valid opinion of him with regards to this part of his game.
New arrival Marcus Olsson (Andy Clarke)
Defending
Left backs should be defenders first and foremost, at least that's what they used to be. It's an interesting one, comparing the likes of Forsyth and Warnock defensively because they are very different in their styles. Forsyth uses his considerable frame to great effect; never diving in, he stands up to his opponent forcing them wide out to the byline where he will often block the attempted cross in. Warnock however is far more confrontational; he will dive in, attempting to win the ball quickly before the opposition winger can get closer to the penalty area.

Both styles have there drawbacks. Forsyth in the past has struggled against pacy wingers when they attack from deep, exposing his poor acceleration. Warnock's style is very high risk, especially for someone of his experience; all it takes is one touch from the opponent and they are away into pen space whilst Warnock is lying on the floor. In his defence though, Warnock is very rarely off in his timing. Olsson is very much an unknown quantity in this situation. From the little I've seen of him, I think he's leans more to Forsyth's style of play, using acceleration instead of height to stand up his opponent.
Forsyth fending off Simon Francis (Getty Images)
Defending in the penalty area is what I like to think of as the last line of defence, if you miss out here or get your timing off the odds are you'll be relying on the goalkeeper to make the safe or the opposition to miss the target. Warnock is absolutely superb in this area, almost always able to make a vital interception when the ball is flashed across goal or leap to head the ball clear when crossed in. This is mainly down to his superb positioning; he knows where to be to help maximise his chances of dealing with every possible situation. Forsyth is also good at this, but I've noticed that he often tend to drift more centrally when the ball is on the opposite side of the pitch, knowing that if the ball is whipped in high, his height can help him deal with it.

From what I've seen, Olsson is definitely the weakest of the three at this part of the game. Against Fulham on his debut he was slow to sort his feet out, conceding an own goal as a result, whilst against Wolves he was caught under the ball for their second goal. There's no doubt in my mind that Warnock and Forsyth would have cleared chances. However, it's early in his Derby career and I'm sure he'll improve with time as he gains more of an understanding with his teammates.

I have to say I miss Forsyth. He offers so much to this team and despite the fact he can be one of our most frustrating players, he was absolutely key in playing the way I assume Mel Morris wants us to play; fast, attacking football that is capable of carving up the opposition. Warnock was probably the ideal player for Clement and his style of football; thinking of defending first and second and then attacking third. Olsson appears to be an improvement over Warnock in an attacking sense, but I do wonder about his defensive capabilities.